Thursday, March 31, 2011

Quantitative Analysis shows Sri Lanka is the clear favorite for winning the 2011 Cricket World Cup final

Quantitative  Analysis shows Sri Lanka is the clear favorite for winning the 2011 World Cup Cricket final.
India IND vs SL Sri Lanka 2011 World Cup Final at Wankhede.
Decided to do some quantitative analysis to predict outcome of 2011 ICC Cricket World Cup to resolve my thoughts on the 2011 Cricket World Cup Winner. ( at Wankhede Stadium).
My heart obviously says and wants India should win but my gut feel and mind says Sri Lanka has much better chances of winning.
Similar to investor behaviour in a stock market. The stock ( Mr. Market) does not know that I have bought the stock or even cares about it. But most people outlook and belief changes the moment they buy the stock. And they track it on regular basis to see their MTM gains.
The basic use of this analysis is to arrive at a conclusion in scientific way i.e to finds to odds and placing your bets on the one which shows the highest evidence / burden of proof. 
So basic summary of my post is if I would put my money on the 2011 WC winner, I would put it on Sri Lanka.
Now a slight detour into the basic strategies of investing /trading ( as I will be using one of these to predict outcome of the 2011 WC match)
As also in investing there are basically two ways of making money. Momentum Investing and Mean reversion. Momentum Investing - would involve following the trend. i.e "the trend is your friend" till the trend changes and you get stopped out. Or in other words , keep buying on highs and keep sell higher.
Mean reversion trading /Investing - would involve " Sell after any rallies, keep booking profit and buy after good corrections". i.e Sell stocks that have risen sharply and buy beaten down stocks that have performed poorly.
But if you analyse the performance of these two strategies - Momentum Investing tends to outperform the latter. 
So my take of the outcome is that yes past performance might not be a good indicator of future performance but if it has`nt performed in the past then on what basis one can bet that it will perform in future??
Using the former method and examining the past performances,   Sri Lanka has much better chances than India. India has prayers of its 1.2 Billion people but it could need more than that. i.e all top 6 Indian batsmen top order should perform. 
So here it goes 

  • Past World Cups- Total IND VS SL matches – 7. India Won – 2, SL won -4  , No result – 1
2.       ( Yes in Total ODI`s India is better . ODIs: Played 128; India won - 67 , Sri Lanka won - 50, NR 11. But also have to see the record in say the recent past 3 years.)  

  • World Cup Records by Sri Lanka
a.       Highest opening partnership (runs) – 282 by Upul Tharanga (133) and Tillakaratne Dilshan (144) against Zimbabwe in 2011.
b.      Best allround performance in WC 2011- Tillakaratne Dilshan in the first innings scoring an unbeaten 144 with the bat and taking 4-4 in the second innings with the new ball.
c.       Best individual bowling – 6-25 by Chaminda Vaas against Bangladesh in 2003.
d.      Most number of dismissals (includes wicket-keeping) – Kumar Sangakkara (32) in 21 matches.
e.      Most number of wickets – Muttiah Muralitharan (53) in 31 matches.
f.        World's only bowler to take four wickets in four consecutive balls – Lasith Malinga against South Africa in 2007
g.       World's only bowler to take two World Cup hat-tricks – Lasith Malinga against South Africa and Kenya in 2007 and 2011.
h.      World's only bowler to have taken a World Cup Hat-trick in the first three balls of a match – Chaminda Vaas against Bangladesh in 2003.
  • In this 2011 Cricket World Cup stats such as Highest Team Scores (India has slight edge) , Top Batsmen scores in WC 2011, Highest Partnerships, Highest wicket hauls, Fielding -Most dismissals , most catches - All parameters - Sri Lanka have outnumbered India.Click table below.

  • In the Wankhede Stadium also , if you see the past World Cup matches played, India has lost more than it has won. Highest runs India scored was 242 In 1996 WorldCup and Australia won by 16 runs. But in this 2011 WC, NZ and Canada both scored 358 and 261 so this could be a high scoring pitch for batsmen. Table below
  •  Lastly Castrol Cricket Team Ratings also favor Sri Lanka. One can compare India vs Sri Lanka here.
Snapshot below

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Past performance is not an indicator for future success :-p
Me

Anonymous said...

More info. in favour of SL.
Sri Lanka have prevailed in recent one-dayers against India, winning six of the 10 matches played last year in Dhaka, Harare, Bulawayo and Dambulla.
From ZeeCric.com

Bowling: Sri Lanka are ahead

The Lankan bowlers have given away far less runs (1328 in 7 innings), which makes it an average of 190 each innings, than the Indian bowlers, who have given away 1996 runs in 8 innings at an average 250 each innings. However, what would give India heart is the fact that both the teams have taken 9 wickets on an average in each game.

Spin Bowling

Sri Lanka have the world’s best spin bowler. Their economy rate (3.79) in far better than the Indians (4.86). The average and strike rates of the Lankan spinners are also much better than the Indians.

Opening Pair

The Indian opening duo of Virender Sehwag and Sachin Tendulkar is what every team dreams of having. So far in the tournament, the duo has managed an average opening stand of 53.9 at a superb strike rate of 102.6

While the Lankan openers have a much better average stand of 97.9, their lower strike rate of 90.1 evens it out.

Kamal Mittal said...

Kamal Mittal: great post... loved reading it

Trend Trading is easy way of making money..... just ride with the tide... but but you in this strategy will end up lossing more than wat you win... strike rate is 3/10...

most of the time u think the market is going up and predict or assume it will continue going up and BUY a CALL but the very next day the market fall... happens most of the time (even you willl agree to it)...

limited point - the trend doesnt go for ever.. it has to end and take/assumes anohter trend and in srilankan case, average or poor performance is wat i am suggesting...

wats ur take