Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Breakouts - Lifetime 52 week highs - AVT Natural,Asahi Songwon,KKCL

Breakouts - Stocks in my Top 20 Convition Buy lists / watchlists making new 52 week / lifetime highs
Another Objective of this article is to make a case for select mid /small caps vs the `fetish` of large caps by most Investors.
So are Large caps safer than small caps?
Hmm remember the Titanic.. unsinkable..

Okay maybe large cap will not sink that easily thanks to "too big to fail" bailout by governments but a 30% to 70% fall in stock price can make good enough damage to your portfolio. ( equivalent of  `sink`)
Lets do a check.
  • India`s largest firm by Market Cap - Reliance RIL. Cmp 870. Down -44% from lifetime high of 1565 made on 11-Jan-2008. Chart here
  •  India`s biggest Automobile firm - Tata Motors. Cmp 983 down -27% from all time high of 1350 made on 15-Dec-2010. Chart here
  • India`s biggest Steel company - Tata Steel. Cmp 590 down -40% from all time high on 990 made on 26-Oct-2007. Chart here
  • India`s biggest Bank - SBI. cmp 2340 . Down -33% from all time high of 3500 on 5-Nov-2010.Chart here
  • India`s biggest Estate firm- DLF. cmp 210 down -83% from all time high made on 11-Jan-2008.chart here
Ok now you get the drift. Now overall the 30 stocks index Sensex is down -14% from its high of 21,000 made on 5-Nov-2010. And broader index BSE 500 is down -25 to -30%.
But if you look deep enough for value without any bias of small cap vs large cap,sectors and apply consistent filters i.e criteria to rate the stocks, there will always be good opportunities.
Basic criteria would be stock should have better fundamentals but lesser valuation ratios that the average Sensex stock.That is it should have better fundamentals -
  • better margins,
  • better earnings growth ,
  • better Return and Efficiency ratios.
  • lower leverage ratios
  • increasing and higher promoter holding
..than the average index Sensex stock but trading at cheaper valuations say  ~ 50% discount to the index. Its hard to go lose money over long term of say 1 to 2 years with this strategy. And this sums up my core stock picking strategy.
I also add more stringent filters such as growth in net cash, no pledged shares or FCCB`s, no significant capex funded by debt to minimize down sides risks.
Here are of my stock picks that are trading at lifetime highs.
Lifetime highs means something special. It means that that no long term investor is at a loss ( i.e every long term investor who hasnt sold his investment till date is in profit). That is any investor who is still holding the stock (that he had bought in any time of the past) is not in any loss.
and technically once a stock makes a new all time high,20% to 30% are seen in the near short term.
  • AVT Natural Products - Since reco. on 23rd Oct 2010 and reco. price of 95, current price is 270. New lifetime high. Broke its previous lifetime high of 150 on 7-Jun-2011 on posting lifetime high profits. Embedded interactive chart below ( Adobe flash player required)
From Mar`09 low of  50, AVT Naturals is up 5.5x in past ~2.5 years. And it is up +70% in past one month. The reco. that I had sent was via email ( and not on this blog) so if anyone wants a copy, let me know.
  • Asahi Songwon Colors - Made new lifetime high of 109 today. Had given reco. in recent blog post here ( on 16-May-2011 , reco price of 78) and rated it among my top 10 conviction buys. It is up +35% in past one month. Still has decent upside left. In FY11 posted lifetime high profits. Since Mar`09 low of 10 , it is up 10x in just past ~2 years. Embedded interactive chart below
  • KKCL - cmp 700. Up 7x from Mar`09 lows of 90. I`m still holding all my shares since bought at 95. But should have bought more at every rise. In FY11 posted lifetime high profits.Previous reco on KKCL given in post here
  •   Cera Sanitaryware - Had given reco ~ 6 months ago at 120 vs cmp 200.(up +67%).Posted lifetime high profits in FY11.Since Mar`09 low 25, Cera is up 8x in past 2.3 years. Broke above its previous resistance of 180 on 5th June 2011.Had emailed this reco earlier ( if anyone wants a copy let me know) and had mentioned  briefly in this blog post here . Chart from Google Finance here
  •  Mayur Uniquoters - given reco. ~5 months ago at 240 vs cmp 330 via email ( and not posted here in the blog. Anyone wants a copy let me know.) Stock is up 13x from Mar`09 lows i.e in just 2.3 years. Since 2004 lows of 5 rs , it is up 66x ! Chart here

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice one... i like the charts...but some took time to load... some didnt load! may be my net connection